Youngsville, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

899
FXUS64 KLCH 061126
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
626 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Tropical storm Milton continues to strengthen over the SW Gulf of
Mexico this morning, a distinctive system on IR satellite imagery
as deep convection develops near the center. Further north, a weak
surface trough is noted over the north central Gulf, with high
pressure ridging from the mid Atlantic into E TX north of the
trough. Aloft, a SW to NE oriented trough axis also persists over
the northern Gulf, with a sharp moisture gradient noted on WV
imagery across the NW Gulf coast.

Conditions are mild and muggy across the area this morning under
mostly clear skies. Temperatures are in the middle 60s to lower
70s with light to near calm winds across the region.

The main weather message for the upcoming forecast period will be
the passage of a cold front on Monday, which will bring cool and
dry weather through the workweek. This period of tranquil weather
will unfortunately result in an increased risk of drought, and
the latest Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry conditions across
SE TX into SW LA. The Drought Outlook for October suggests that
drought will further develop through the next few weeks. While no
significant impacts are expected to the local area from TC Milton,
the system will no doubt be watched over the coming days as it is
expected to quickly strengthen into a Hurricane as it crosses the
southern Gulf, and could potentially reach major hurricane
strength as it approaches the FL peninsula.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Dry and benign conditions are expected to prevail through the
short term period. Surface ridging will persist today across the
region while a cold front poised across the central US slides
south toward the area tonight. The front is expected to move
through the area on Monday and into the northern Gulf Monday
night. A gradual reduction in PWAT values is expected today into
tonight as drier air aloft advects into the region, and this along
with limited stability will keep FROPA dry on Monday. Surface
high pressure will build south across the northern and central US,
with northerly winds bringing this cool and dry airmass into the
region through the early to middle part of the week.

Above normal temperatures are expected through Monday with highs
today and Monday climbing into the lower 90s across much of the
area, while overnight lows will again be in the middle 60s to
around 70. Cooler temperatures will begin to filter into the
region Monday evening, with lows falling back close to climo
levels in the upper 50s north to lower/middle 60s south. Daytime
highs on Tuesday will also be close to seasonal normals with
temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, while even cooler
temperatures are expected Tuesday night as the surface ridge
builds further into the region with lows falling into the middle
50s north and upper 50s/around 60 along and south of I-10.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

The dry and uneventful weather pattern will persist through the
long term period as a trough over the eastern US and ridging
across the SW maintains a N-NW flow aloft through the end of the
week. By the weekend, the high over the southwest is expected to
transition east toward the middle to lower MS Valley and this will
allow a gradual uptick in temperatures by the weekend, while the
surface high will settle over the SE states.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

VFR will prevail through the period, with generally clear skies
expected although FEW-SCT CU will be possible during the
afternoon. Winds will be northeasterly around 10 KT today. A few
higher gusts will be possible, but should stay below 20 KT.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong easterly winds will prevail
through the weekend between high pressure to the north and
Tropical Cyclone Milton over the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Increasing wave heights will also be possible over the outer
coastal waters by late tonight into Monday as Milton tracks east
across the southern Gulf. Small craft advisories are in effect for
the outer coastal waters due to winds today, but this advisory
will continue into Monday morning as seas are expected to build.

Rain chances will continue to decrease over the coastal waters
through Monday, with a dry cold front expected to move through
the area. Strong offshore flow will develop behind the front
from Monday into Tuesday, and Small Craft Advisories will likely
remain in effect and possibly expanded during this timeframe.
Offshore flow will gradually diminish through the latter half of
the week, with winds veering more east by the weekend.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  90  69  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  92  70  92  63 /  10  10   0   0
BPT  93  69  93  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24